IGT HPC Work Group Meeting
High-performance computing needs for Numerical Weather Prediction
Speaker: Yoav Levi, Israel Meteorological Servicehttp://www.ims.gov.il/IMS/All_Tahazit/homepage.htm
Wednesday, March 24th, 2010IGT Offices, Maskit 4, 5th Floor, Hertzliya.
14:00-14:05: Opening - Avner & Guy
14:05-15:00: High performance computing needs for
Numerical Weather Prediction
15:00-15:15: Discussion and concluding remarks
High performance computing needs for Numerical Weather Prediction
Abstract:Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) uses current weather conditions as input into Mathematical models of the atmosphere to predict the weather. Richardson wrote the differential equations for NWP at 1922. He also calculated that if there was a "forecasting factory", 64,000 people will be needed to solve the equations and produce a forecast for the next day.
It wasn't until the advent of the computer and computer simulation that it was feasible to do NWP in real-time. Manipulating the huge datasets and performing the complex calculations necessary to do this on a resolution fine enough to make the results useful requires the use of some of the most powerful supercomputers in the world.
At 1963 Lorenz discovered that small changes in initial conditions produced large changes in the long-term outcome. Lorenz's discovery was the base of the Chaos theory and proved NWP could not reasonably predict weather beyond a weekly period. The development of parallel computing opened the opportunity to run numerous runs with different initial conditions. These ensemble models define the forecast uncertainty and extend weather forecasting farther into the future than would otherwise be possible.
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We are looking forward to seeing you!
Guy Tel-Zur, Ph.D. IGT HPC WG Head & Chairman